Michael Barone’s Retrospective on his Almanac of American Politics Intros
Michael
Barone’s retrospectives on over thirty years of the
Almanac of American Politics makes interesting
reading. He goes over his analyses and predictions
with the benefit of hindsight and the openness of someone
whose wisdom is well enough established that he can admit to
mistakes. Here’s an example, on the 1982 almanac:
This Introduction includes summaries of the battles for the
Democratic and Republican nominations which I think stand up
very well. It has a neat summary of John Anderson’s
candidacy which also stands up well, but is a bit too snide;
and it ends by noting that Anderson emerged with a mailing
list three times larger than that of the Democratic party
and that therefore “Anderson has the potential of reviving
his candidacy in 1984 and may be an important political
factor in the years in between.” Nothing like that happened
at all, and I should have had the good judgment to see that
it wouldn’t. The summary of the general election reads well,
and I wouldn’t change it today. The crux: “Voters wanted to
reject Carter and were looking for reassurance that Reagan
was acceptable. In the debate they got it. Reagan made no
obvious mistakes; he stressed convincingly his desire for
peace. He presented himself as an amiable and knowledgeable
man, and one capable of inspiration.” But I didn’t mention
his famous words, “Are you better off than you were four
years ago” (they are mentioned later in the Introduction)
and “There you go again.”