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2005 April | Eric Rasmusen's Weblog

Archive for April, 2005

Omitted Variable Bias; Race and Wages; Econometrics

Saturday, April 30th, 2005

Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution writes about Heckman et al.’s Journal of Law and Economics paper, “Labor Market Discrimination and Racial Differences in Premarket Factors”. The paper is clearly worth reading, but I got distracted by an econometric idea I had that might lead to a generally useful technique.

Suppose you regress Wage on IQ and Black and find both significant. Could the significance of Black just be because IQ tests are imperfect, and Black is accidentally correlated with Ability, the true cause of Wage, whereas IQ has a true association with Ability? In that case, adding lots more variables would make Black’s effect get smaller and smaller, as more variables were added that were acccidentally correlated with Ability, but IQ would stay as important as before. It might be like this:

True Equation (1): Ability = IQ + Creativity + Wisdom + Trickiness

True Equation (2): Wage = Ability

Trickiness is inversely correlated with Black, and also correlated with City and Occupation and Jailed. I guess it should be correlated with IQ too, really.

Regression (1): Wage = IQ + Black

Regression (2) Wage = IQ + Black + City + Occupation + Jailed

If we run (2) instead of (1), the coefficients on both IQ and BLack will shrink. IQ will maybe get more significant; Black will get less significant.

This strategy is interesting. Throw in the kitchen sink, but don’t look at all the new variables for significance. Rather, hope they kill off some of your old variables.Any that survive really are important.

Porn Use by Christians, Etc.

Friday, April 29th, 2005

The World Magazine article “Porn Again” has distressing news about the prevalence of pornography in Christian homes.


A 2003 survey from Internet Filter Review reported that 47 percent of Christians admit pornography is a major problem in their homes.

An internet survey conducted by Rick Warren of Saddleback Church in 2002 found 30 percent of 6,000 pastors had viewed internet porn in the last 30 days.

A Christianity Today Leadership Survey in 2001 reported 37 percent of pastors have viewed internet porn.

Family Safe Media reports 53 percent of men belonging to the Christian organization Promise Keepers visit porn sites every week.

One in seven calls to Focus on the Family’s Pastoral Care Hotline is related to internet pornography.

Today’s Christian Woman in 2003 found that one in six women, including Christians, struggles with pornography addiction. …

A 2002 study by the London School of Economics found nine of 10 children between ages 8 and 16 had viewed internet pornography. The report found most of those cases to be unintentional. Recovered porn addict Mark Laaser testified of such unintentional discoveries before Congress five years ago, reporting that one 8-year-old girl’s internet search for “Cinderella” produced an image-laden, pornographic adaptation of the innocent fairy tale.


The laws are weak, have been under assault from the judiciary, and have been weakly enforced. From the same article:



The Communications Decency Act of 1996, which prohibited pornographers from knowingly transmitting indecent messages to minors, fell in 1997 after a challenge from the American Civil Liberties Union on the grounds of First Amendment free-speech rights. In 1998, the Child Online Protection Act sought more modest regulations, forcing all commercial distributors of cyber-porn to block minors by requiring credit-card numbers.

Again, the act lasted only one year, as the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals declared it unconstitutional in 1999. In May 2002, the Supreme Court determined the reason for that ruling insufficient and sent the issue back to the 3rd Circuit Court for reexamination. The court once again struck down the act as unconstitutional, and this time, upon Supreme Court review last June, the ruling stood.

Only the Children’s Internet Protection Act of 2000 remains in effect, though not for lack of challenge. This skimpy provision requires that public libraries employ internet filters on public computers. No legislation has succeeded in limiting the rights of pornographers in any way.

Berger, Tribe, and Why Important Malefactors Get Off Easy

Friday, April 29th, 2005

Two recent developments in old stories are depressing but illustrate a general point: even if the authorities are not in sympathy with a powerful person who is caught breaking the rules, that person will get unfairly lenient treatment. I refer to Sandy Berger and Laurence Tribe, both of whom essentially went unpunished for actions that would have wrecked the lives of people less famous. The reasons seem different in the two cases, though. As I will explain, in the Berger case, the reason was probably political dealmaking, while in the Tribe case it was institutional self-protection. That both culprits were prominent liberals is also related to their lenient treatment, I think.

Case 1: Sandy “Burglar” Berger. Sandy Berger, prominent advisor to President Clinton and presidential candidate John Kerry, is caught stealing and destroying classified documents. The evidence is strong enough that no plea bargain is needed to guarantee a conviction. The maximum penalty, a National Review article tells us, is one year of jail and a $100,000 fine. Yet he receives a $10,000 fine, trivial for a man of his wealth, and no jail time. And he receives it from a Republican Attorney-General, who also goes out of his way to minimize the seriousness of the offense. Why?

My guess is a bigger deal was made. Sandy Berger has important friends in Congress and elsewhere, friends who have things such as Congressional votes to trade to the Administration. There were thus potential gains from trade. We do not allow bribes of money to be made for prosecutorial leniency, but bribes of power are another matter. It is not even clear that the net outcome is bad for the country: it might be that Sandy Berger gets off, but Social Security gets reformed as a result.

The Volcker Commission’s leniency to the United Nations might fall in this category too. It was blackmail against Annan. Bush tells Volcker to spare Kofi Annan in return for Annan’s help in foreign policy.

It is fine, by the way, for we in the ignorant public to complain of this kind of leniency. The more we complain, the bigger the bribe the Bush Administration can extract from Berger’s friends or the United Nations. Thus, our criticism is helpful.

Case 2: Professor Laurence Tribe of Harvard Law School. In two separate cases, professors at Harvard Law School were caught plagiarizing– plagiarizing, in the sense that what they did would have gotten a student in serious trouble. Professor Tribe’s case is the third. As this long post by Lawrence Velvel explains, it was egregious. Yet the Harvard Administration, while admittin Tribe’s guilt, inflicts absolutely no punishment of any kind. Here is the last part of the official Harvard letter:


With the benefit of this inquiry, and as publicly acknowledged by Professor Tribe himself, it is apparent that his book contained various brief passages and phrases that echo or overlap with material in the Abraham book, and that he failed to provide appropriate attribution for them. We have taken note that the relevant conduct took place two decades ago, that Professor Tribe’s book (written without footnotes and for a general audience) mentioned the Abraham book in a concluding bibliographic note, and that the unattributed material related more to matters of phrasing than to fundamental ideas. We are also firmly convinced that the error was the product of inadvertence rather than intentionality. Nevertheless, we regard the error in question as a significant lapse in proper academic practice — as does Professor Tribe himself. The failure of an author to attribute sources properly, however inadvertent the error, is a matter of serious concern in an academic community.

We have conveyed these conclusions and concerns to Professor Tribe, and now consider the matter closed. In line with usual University practice, we intend no further comment on the matter.

It is perhaps relevant that President Summers and Dean Kagan, the relevant University authories, both worked high up in the Clinton Administration during the scandals there. While that shows they have a tolerant attitude towards wrongdoing I don’t think that is the driving force here, though it shows they are willing to sacrifice punishing wrongdoers to achieve other important ends. Also, though Tribe, like Berger, has important friends, there is a different reason at work here which is probably more important: institutional self-protection.

When Berger and Annan were caught misbehaving, that was good news for the Bush Administration. In the absence of a deal, the Administration would have happily publicized the misbehavior and punished the culprits. Thus, its threat to do so was credible, and thus my prediction that it extracted some benefits from the culprits.

When Tribe was caught misbehaving, on the other hand, that was bad news for the Harvard Administration. They would rather it not have happened, and that once it happened it had never become public, because it diminishes the value of one of their star professors and it hurts the Harvard name generally, especially coming after two other cases of dubious conduct by faculty in the law school. As a result, punishing Tribe is costly to Harvard, and the Administration has a strong incentive to minimize the offense. The Administration wants to deter future plagiarism too, but it is caught in a bind. Going easy on Tribe is particularly attractive at the moment, though, because President Summers is already unpopular internally and has lots of other things on his mind.

This all fits together. Why do Harvard faculty engage in scholarly misconduct? Because they know the University has an incentive to go easy on them. We should therefore expect more such misconduct at Harvard than at lesser universities.

Is Stigma the Important Punishment for Celebrity Wrongdoers?

It seems unfair that important wrongdoers get off more easily than most people. But there is an additional punishment we have not yet considered: stigma. Someone who is important has more of a reputation to lose. If Sandy Berger and Larry Tribe’s future careers will suffer enough as a result of unofficial punishment, it would be reasonable to make their official punishment small.

That is not a bad argument generally, but I’m afraid it won’t apply to these two cases. Sandy Berger has shown he will commit crimes to protect the people he works for, and that will only make him more attractive to them. He did lose his position with the Kerry Campaign, but that turned out just to save him some time otherwise wasted on a losing cause. Larry Tribe has shown that his books and articles need to be looked at carefully, and this will cost him a little with publishers. He is a tenured Harvard professor with ample opportunities to publish nonetheless.

Compare this with the stigma punishment lesser figures would suffer. Someone currently employed by the government who did what Berger did would lose his security clearance, and hence his livelihood. An assistant professor at Harvard would lose his chance for tenure, and severely hurt his chances of getting a job in any other university. Thus, in these cases it is the little people who should receive smaller official punishments, not the important people.

Are Liberals Treated More Leniently than Conservatives?

Another question one might ask is whether this same analysis would apply to conservatives, and, if so, why aren’t more conservatives caught stealing and cheating?

The analysis can be applied, but I think the incentives come out a little differently, because conservatives are more moralistic, and mind stealing and cheating more than liberals do. I am not thinking of the culprits here so much as the people involved later. If a Republican had behaved like Berger, he wouldn’t be as likely to have friends trade favors to rescue him. If conservatives had been the Dean and President at Harvard, instead of Clinton appointees, they might have been more willing to inflict damage on Harvard by punishing Tribe.

Asking Questions

Thursday, April 28th, 2005

Having the initiative to ask the question is often the most important part of thinking. That is true both for daily life and for scholarly work.

In daily life, if a person faces tasks A and B, where A is urgent and B is not, he should obviously do task A first. But some people never ask themselves which task is more urgent. If someone is thinking about borrowing money, he should ask himself what the probability is that he will become unemployed– but many people fail to think of doing that.

In scholarly work, often the most important innovation is to pose a new question. Solow asked what proportion of economic growth could be explained by increases in capital and labor, for example. Once you ask the question, it is relatively easy to find the answer. When I visited Chicago, asking short but big questions was the most noticeable talent of George Stigler and Gary Becker. They would floor a seminar speaker with a simple and ex-post-obvious question that he hadn’t thought about despite working on a paper for six months.

Excommunication and the Roman Catholic Church

Thursday, April 28th, 2005

Michael Novak notes at National Review that the Roman Catholic Church has disciplined only 12 people (plus followers of one) for heresy, broadly defined, in the past 27 years. I say “broadly defined” because the most prominent example is Archbishop Lefebvre, who was excommunicated with his followers for disobedience, which is important, but who disagreed with Church teaching on things like whether the Mass should be said in Latin, which nobody thinks is a central point in itself.

Moreover, of those 12, only 3 (including Lefebvre) were excommunicated. The rest were merely told that they couldn’t teach at Roman Catholic colleges. Most Roman Catholics are not allowed to either, though in 99.99% of cases the reason is lack of credentials rather than incorrect teaching , so that is not much of a punishment.

Mr. Novak and others are citing these facts as being favorable to the Church, but of course they are not. They show that the Church’s interest in correct doctrine is minimal, and they are willing to have Roman Catholic colleges teach heresy so long as it doesn’t get too public that they are doing so, and that members of the Church are free to believe– and to say publicly– pretty much anything they want.

Of course, minimal interest is more than no interest. Most churches will not expel members for any reason whatsoever.

Pope Benedict’s Protestant Sensibility?

Wednesday, April 27th, 2005

I am hopeful with respect to Pope Benedict. The choice of name is a good sign– apparently Benedict XIV, who reformed saint-making, and Benedict XV, Pope during World War I, were good men. Also, Mr. Ratzinger shows hints of Protestant sensibility. Mr. Henninger of The Wall Street Journal says:


One of the most interesting explorations of the Ratzinger mind is his memoir “Milestones” from Ignatius Press. It is difficult to obtain it this week, but an excellent summary exists in Rev. Richard John Neuhaus’s 1999 review, “Joseph Ratzinger, Christ’s Donkey,” in his valuable journal First Things at www.firstthings.com/ftissues/ft9901/public.html.

In that book, Joseph Ratzinger describes how he prefers Augustine to Thomas Aquinas, “whose crystal-clear logic seemed to me to be too closed in on itself, too impersonal and ready-made.”


Mr. Henninger focuses on how interesting it is that an inquisitor would prefer the free-flowing Augustine to the rigid authority Aquinas. I noted that Augustine preceded many of the bad Roman doctrines that Aquinas tried to rationalize.

Also, take a look at the sermon Cardinal Ratzinger preached at the Conclave. I’ve put my comments in italics.

CARDINAL JOSEPH RATZINGER

HOMILY AT THE MASS FOR THE ELECTION OF THE ROMAN PONTIFF, April 18, 2005

At this hour of great responsibility, we hear with special consideration what the Lord says to us in His own words. From the three readings I would like to examine just a few passages which concern us directly at this time.

The first reading gives us a prophetic depiction of the person of the Messiah–a depiction which takes all its meaning from the moment Jesus reads the text in the synagogue in Nazareth, when He says: “Today this scripture passage is fulfilled in your hearing” (Lk 4,21 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). At the core of the prophetic text we find a word which seems contradictory, at least at first sight. The Messiah, speaking of Himself, says that He was sent “To announce a year of favor from the Lord and a day of vindication by our God” (Is 61,2). We hear with joy the news of a year of favor: divine mercy puts a limit on evil–the Holy Father told us. Jesus Christ is divine mercy in person: encountering Christ means encountering the mercy of God. Christ’s mandate has become our mandate through priestly anointing. We are called to proclaim–not only with our words, but with our lives, and through the valuable signs of the sacraments, the “year of favor from the Lord.”

But what does the prophet Isaiah mean when he announces the “day of vindication by our God”? In Nazareth, Jesus did not pronounce these words in His reading of the prophet’s text–Jesus concluded by announcing the year of favor. Was this, perhaps, the reason for the scandal which took place after His sermon? We do not know. In any case, the Lord gave a genuine commentary on these words by being put to death on the cross. Saint Peter says: “He himself bore our sins in His body upon the cross” (1 Pe 2,24). And Saint Paul writes in his letter to the Galatians: “Christ ransomed us from the curse of the law by becoming a curse for us, for it is written, ‘Cursed be everyone who hangs on a tree,’ that the blessing of Abraham might be extended to the Gentiles through Christ Jesus, so that we might receive the promise of the Spirit through faith.” (Gal 3, 13 [+/-]Open Link in New Windows).

Notice all the Scripture references. That is like a Protestant sermon.

The mercy of Christ is not a cheap grace; it does not presume a trivialization of evil. Christ carries in His body and on His soul all the weight of evil, and all its destructive force. He burns and transforms evil through suffering, in the fire of His suffering love. The day of vindication and the year of favor meet in the paschal mystery, in Christ died and risen. This is the vindication of God: He himself, in the person of the Son, suffers for us. The more we are touched by the mercy of the Lord, the more we draw closer in solidarity with His suffering–and become willing to bear in our flesh “what is lacking in the afflictions of Christ” (Col 1, 24 [+/-]Open Link in New Window).

In the second reading, the letter to the Ephesians, we see basically three aspects: first, the ministries and charisms in the Church, as gifts of the Lord risen and ascended into heaven. Then there is the maturing of faith and knowledge of the Son of God, as a condition and essence of unity in the body of Christ. Finally, there is the common participation in the growth of the body of Christ–of the transformation of the world into communion with the Lord.

Let us dwell on only two points. The first is the journey towards “the maturity of Christ” as it is said in the Italian text, simplifying it a bit. More precisely, according to the Greek text, we should speak of the “measure of the fullness of Christ,” to which we are called to reach in order to be true adults in the faith. We should not remain infants in faith, in a state of minority. And what does it mean to be an infant in faith? Saint Paul answers: it means “tossed by waves and swept along by every wind of teaching arising from human trickery” (Eph 4, 14 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). This description is very relevant today!

He speaks of the Italian text and the Greek text– but not the Latin text, the Vulgate, which is the official text of the Roman Catholic Church! That is good, and significant.

How many winds of doctrine we have known in recent decades, how many ideological currents, how many ways of thinking. . . . The small boat of thought of many Christians has often been tossed about by these waves–thrown from one extreme to the other: from Marxism to liberalism, even to libertinism; from collectivism to radical individualism; from atheism to a vague religious mysticism; from agnosticism to syncretism, and so forth. Every day new sects are created and what Saint Paul says about human trickery comes true, with cunning which tries to draw those into error (cf Eph 4, 14 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). Having a clear faith, based on the Creed of the Church, is often labeled today as a fundamentalism. Whereas, relativism, which is letting oneself be tossed and “swept along by every wind of teaching,” looks like the only attitude (acceptable) to today’s standards. We are moving towards a dictatorship of relativism which does not recognize anything as for certain and which has as its highest goal one’s own ego and one’s own desires.

He does not include Protestantism as one of the waves.

He identifies himself with “fundamentalism”– something I think of as Protestant.

However, we have a different goal: the Son of God, true man. He is the measure of true humanism. Being an “Adult” means having a faith which does not follow the waves of today’s fashions or the latest novelties. A faith which is deeply rooted in friendship with Christ is adult and mature. It is this friendship which opens us up to all that is good and gives us the knowledge to judge true from false, and deceit from truth. We must become mature in this adult faith; we must guide the flock of Christ to this faith. And it is this faith–only faith–which creates unity and takes form in love. On this theme, Saint Paul offers us some beautiful words–in contrast to the continual ups and downs of those were are like infants, tossed about by the waves: (he says) make truth in love, as the basic formula of Christian existence. In Christ, truth and love coincide. To the extent that we draw near to Christ, in our own life, truth and love merge. Love without truth would be blind; truth without love would be like “a resounding gong or a clashing cymbal” (1 Cor 13,1 [+/-]Open Link in New Window).

“Friendship with Christ”– how modern-Protestant!

Notice, too, that Jesus Christ is central in this sermon– not God the Father, not Mary.

And where are the saints and the church fathers? Sola Scriptura here.

Looking now at the richness of the Gospel reading, I would like to make only two small observations. The Lord addresses to us these wonderful words: “I no longer call you slaves . . . I have called you friends” (Jn 15,15 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). So many times we feel like, and it is true, that we are only useless servants. (cf Lk 17,10 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). And despite this, the Lord calls us friends, He makes us his friends, he gives us his friendship. The Lord defines friendship in a dual way. There are no secrets among friends: Christ tells us all everything He hears from the Father; He gives us His full trust, and with that, also knowledge. He reveals His face and His heart to us. He shows us His tenderness for us, His passionate love that goes to the madness of the cross. He entrusts us, He gives us power to speak in His name: “this is my body . . . ,” “I forgive you . . . .” He entrusts us with His body, the Church. He entrusts our weak minds and our weak hands with His truth–the mystery of God the Father, Son, and Holy Spirit; the mystery of God who “so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son” (Jn 3, 16 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). He made us His friends–and how do we respond?

“His body, the Church” — not “His body, the Holy Sacrament.” Neither is Protestant, but the former gets a lot closer.

“He made us His friends”– the idea returns.

The second element with which Jesus defines friendship is the communion of wills. For the Romans “Idem velle–idem nolle,” (same desires, same dislikes) was also the definition of friendship. “You are my friends if you do what I command you.” (Jn 15, 14 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). Friendship with Christ coincides with what is said in the third request of the Our Father: “Thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven”. At the hour in the Garden of Gethsemane, Jesus transformed our rebellious human will in a will shaped and united to the divine will. He suffered the whole experience of our autonomy–and precisely bringing our will into the hands of God, He have us true freedom: “Not my will, but your will be done.” In this communion of wills our redemption takes place: being friends of Jesus to become friends of God. How much more we love Jesus, how much more we know Him, how much more our true freedom grows as well as our joy in being redeemed. Thank you, Jesus, for your friendship!


“For the Romans “Idem velle–idem nolle,” (same desires, same dislikes) was also the definition of friendship.” This looks like an offer of alliance to orthodox Protestants and Greek Orthodox churches.

“Thank you, Jesus, for your friendship!” Yet again we have an accessible Jesus, Lord but not so distant that saints are needed for intercession.

The other element of the Gospel to which I would like to refer is the teaching of Jesus on bearing fruit: “I who chose you and appointed you to go and bear fruit that will remain” (Jn 15, 16 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). It is here that is expressed the dynamic existence of the Christian, the apostle: I chose you to go and bear fruit . . . .” We must be inspired by a holy restlessness: restlessness to bring to everyone the gift of faith, of friendship with Christ. In truth, the love and friendship of God was given to us so that it would also be shared with others. We have received the faith to give it to others–we are priests meant to serve others. And we must bring a fruit that will remain. All people want to leave a mark which lasts. But what remains? Money does not. Buildings do not, nor books. After a certain amount of time, whether long or short, all these things disappear. The only thing which remains forever is the human soul, the human person created by God for eternity. The fruit which remains then is that which we have sowed in human souls–love, knowledge, a gesture capable of touching the heart, words which open the soul to joy in the Lord. Let us then go to the Lord and pray to Him, so that He may help us bear fruit which remains. Only in this way will the earth be changed from a valley of tears to a garden of God.

“We must be inspired by a holy restlessness: restlessness to bring to everyone the gift of faith, of friendship with Christ. In truth, the love and friendship of God was given to us so that it would also be shared with others.” This is evangelical, of course. Also, it is a call to the clergy to reach out to the laity and not just to celebrate Masses.

In conclusion, returning again to the letter to the Ephesians, which says with words from Psalm 68 [+/-]Open Link in New Window that Christ, ascending into heaven, “gave gifts to men” (Eph 4,8 [+/-]Open Link in New Window). The victor offers gifts. And these gifts are apostles, prophets, evangelists, pastors and teachers. Our ministry is a gift of Christ to humankind, to build up His body–the new world. We live out our ministry in this way, as a gift of Christ to humanity! But at this time, above all, we pray with insistence to the Lord, so that after the great gift of Pope John Paul II, He again gives us a pastor according to His own heart, a pastor who guides us to knowledge in Christ, to His love and to true joy. Amen.

So what are the themes of this sermon? — Jesus Christ as friend and savior, the importance of fundamentals, the danger of fads and relativism, and the duty of evangelism. I am highly encouraged.

Has Legalizing Abortion Resulted in More Deaths from It?

Tuesday, April 26th, 2005

Yesterday I was teaching the Peltzman Effect– the idea that making a product more safe can result in an increase in the number of injuries from it. If better brakes are put on cars, people will drive faster, and the result can be (but need not be) an increase in the number of accidents.

I wonder how this applies to abortion. In 1965 abortion was illegal almost everywhere in America. Then California under Governor Reagan legalized it, and then in 1973 Judge Blackmun forced it on the rest of us. Illegal abortions are much more dangerous than legal ones, but the number of abortions increased vastly, and the question is what happened to the total number of injuries or deaths. Note that it is not enough to say that abortion is a very safe procedure. When you have 1.3 million abortions per year, even a death rate of 1 per 10,000 abortions means 130 deaths per year. And 153 thousand of those 1.3 million are at 13 weeks or more of pregnancy.

The Morality of Copying and Copyright

Tuesday, April 26th, 2005

I’ve been doing lots of thinking about economics this past few days. I really ought to blog up a storm on it, and perhaps I will, if I don’t get too tired out talking with students about their term papers. First: copying.

Before the Talk. Today I present, informally, on my copying paper in the Bus Econ Tuesday lunch. The idea is to ask what norm would be efficient for dealing with copying and copyright. If we could somehow instill guilt and self-satisfaction into people depending on their copying behavior, how would we do it? Would we, for example, make it so that a person would feel as guilty about downloading a copyrighted song as he would about shoplifting a CD from a record store?

You could try to answer this question using any system of morality as a starting point. For example, you could take as a premise that downloading copyrighted songs is intrinsically evil, and decide whether you want to make the norm strong enough to stop this evil behavior.

There are three difficulties, though. First, our moral capacity is limited. Human nature makes it infeasible to instill the same amount of potential guilt for burping in public as for murder. Thus, we may not want to use enough of that capacity on minor evils such as copying so as to deter it altogether. Second, we will lose some human happiness as a result. Even if copying is intrinsically evil, there are situations in which it causes nobody harm and makes the copier happier. There has to be a strong reason to hurt people just to avoid the intrinsic evil. Third, it is very hard to show that downloading copyrighted songs is intrinsically evil.

Let me expand on that last point. There are a number of moral systems you might be using. You might be Christian, or Moslem, or a Stoic, or believe in following the moral intuitions of human nature, or a Rawlsian liberal, or a Kantian. None of those systems can deal very well with music copying. It is not mentioned in the Bible, and it is not hardwired into human nature by God or evolution. All of these systems include a command of “Do not steal”, but that command begs the question– what does “steal” mean? We could write copyright law to allow people to download songs for personal use or not. It’s not obvious which way is morally right by any of the systems I have mentioned. In fact, until relatively recently, songs had no protection whatsoever under copyright law, and not more than a century or two before that, there was no copyright law even for books. Thus, I don’t think moral systems give much guidance to whether we should categorize music downloading as stealing, however much guidance they give as to whether a person should steal or not.

What I will look at, therefore, is the idea of value maximization, or “economic efficiency” as it is typically but misleadingly called. What norm would make people happiest, with happiness being defined in terms of satisfying their desires given that the world has finite resources?

Let us put aside the issue of what to do about copying that can be stopped by laws, as opposed to norms. It is feasible for a law to prevent someone from opening up a store to copy and sell copyrighted books without royalties, for example, because if such an operation were to be profitable it would have to be big and public enough to be detected by the police. A law against a person borrowing a friend’s CD and copying a song from it onto his computer, however, would be impossible to enforce. (Note that there does exist such a law: you can be sued and fined, though not imprisoned , if you copy a friend’s CD [U.S. Code 17-106-1, 17-504, 17-506, 18-2319-b-3])
Since it is easy enough to enforce much of current copyright law, we need not consider the use of norms there. To be sure, norms are often useful even as an addition to law, but commercial copyright violation is so each to catch that a norm against it would be less important than, say, a norm against burglary, a much harder crime to detect.

Here are a few principles.

1. There should be no guilt over use by copying that would not have occurred if the person had to buy it, because purchase is so troublesome.

Suppose it costs $3 in time and convenience to figure out how to buy the song, and only $1 to copy it without purchase, and that the song is only worth $2 to the person. Copying is efficient and purchase is inefficient.

2. There should be no guilt over use by copying that would not have occurred if the person had to buy it, because the price is so high.

The price might be high for two reasons. First, sale is more costly to do than copying, because it requires funds transfer as well as the copying of the song, so a price equal to the marginal cost of selling would still be greater than the marginal cost of copying. Second, the price would be higher than marginal cost, because the seller has a monopoly.

Suppose the time cost of copying is $1 but the time cost of a sale is $2 for the buyer and $4 for the seller, a total cost of $6. Suppose furthermore that the seller charges a price of $8, but this particular person’s value for the song is $5. The sale would not occur, and would not occur even if the price fell to the seller’s marginal cost of $4.


3. Maybe there should be guilt if the person’s value for the song is high enough that he would buy the song if copying were not possible.


Suppose the cost of copying is $1 and the transaction costs of purchase are $2 to the buyer and $3 to the seller, that the price is $15, and the consumer’s value is $30. Then we want there to be copying if the marginal effect of the $12 profit to the seller has a big enough incentive effect on creation of new works and if the opportunity cost of using up moral capacity here is low enough.

4. There should be guilt if the cost of copying is enough higher than the transactions cost of purchase.

Suppose the cost of copying is $9, because it is hard to defeat the copy protection. The transactions cost to the buyer of buying, though, is only $1, and the transaction cost to the seller of selling is $2, a total of $3, and that the seller is charging a price of $8.

All of these are single-consumer examples. In practice, some people will violate and some will not. Thus, guilt will be incurred. Is this an additional cost?

Also, actual violations may use up moral capacity in a different way.

Also, it may be that we do not value utility generated by norm violation, but we do value utility generated by compliance. Getting rid of the norm violation converts all that consupmtion utility into socially valuble utility. (the rape analogy)

If so, we want to avoid a situation where there is lots of the illegal activity.

After the Talk. The lunch went very well. These lunches are talks of the One Equation, One Regression, or One Graph variety, with the audience doing more talking, in aggregate, than the speaker. I got lots of good comments including:

1. A survey found most people thought renting a video and then copying it was wrong. This is probably the result of seeing years of FBI warnings at the start of videos. The movie industry has consciously tried to instill a norm, and has succeeded– but perhaps with a small guilt value g. This instillation has been costly. I should compute out the length of each warning, the number of viewings, and the cost per minute of viewer’s time.

2. There was an experiment done in a parking garage to see how the existing amount of trash affected people’s willingness to thrown down an ad leaflet put on their windshield. They threw down the least if there was not zero but one leaflet already on the floor.

3. I should think about how violation affects the size of guilt, g. Maybe it is psychologically impossible to keep g positive if 90% of people are incurring it daily.

4. How does guilt differ from a prison term? Both are costly punishments. But using prison means that increasing the probability of catching violators is costly, whereas for guilt it is costless.

5. I do not include shame in the model– the disutility of somebody else seeing me copy. That is a topic for another day.

6. A more important reason for giving profits to creators, probably, than incentive for creation is incentive for dissemination. The market works to generate the information that a song is good, and the owner responds by marketing it more. That is lost if there is too much copying.

7. Larry Lessig’s books Free Culture and The Future of Ideas might be relevant, as is an old 1970s Harvard Law Review article by Stephen Breyer suggesting that copyright be abolished altogether. I should of course cite Demsetz and Posner on primitive property law.

8. I can think of private advertising as attempts to affect guilt g and self-satisfaction s. An ad for organic food could try to make me fearful of not buying it, or satisfied for buying it.

9. Is checking a book out of a public library immoral? That is the same kind of question. It is legal, certainly, but it is also true that it hurts authors.

10. On the other hand, sometimes the creator gets a benefit from copying even though no price is paid. He gets free advertising, or network externalities. I should add this to the equation and to the considerations.

11. Maybe I should put the heterogeneity in the cost of copying rather than moralness. If I have two dimensions of heterogeneity, I can generate all 3 behaviors– non-use, copying, buying– in the same equilibrium.

Syria Ends Its Occupation of Lebanon– A Huge Bush Triumph

Tuesday, April 26th, 2005

“Syria Ends Military Domination of Lebanon”, the AP says:


Syria ended its 29-year military domination of Lebanon on Tuesday as soldiers flashing victory signs completed a withdrawal spurred by intense international pressure and massive Lebanese street protests against a force that once reached 40,000.

Isn’t this huge news? A major triumph for the Bush Administration? Bigger by far than any Mideast peace accomplishment since Jimmy Carter negotiated the Sinai withdrawal and peace between Egypt and Israel? Yet the AP article hardly mentions the US, giving credit by implication to the UN instead. Maybe easy byproduct of the success of his Iraq and Afhanistant policy.

Classical Records and Turntables

Monday, April 25th, 2005

I hear that Ars Antiqua is going out of business and having a huge sale of used classical records. This is a local Bloomington business that publishes the standard catalog of values for used classical records and is one of the world’s leading sellers of them. Anyone interested in unusual recordings of classical music– or just in records generally– should take notice.

Jeff Stake taught me something useful recently about record players, by the way. I had the problem that my turntable skipped when my children jumped in the living room. He suggested I put it on a shelf attached to the wall instead of on a table sitting on the floor, because the vibrations from the jumping are not trasnmitted much from floor to wall. That worked, and made better use of space besides.

Lewdness in Public

Monday, April 25th, 2005

National Review has a good article on the lewdness that confronts a 7-year-old girl in a typical day. The effect on a 46-year-old man such as myself is probably even worse.

Web Photos of Economists

Monday, April 25th, 2005

I came across Professor Deardorff’s Rogue’s Gallery of international economists while looking for Keith Maskus’s email address yesterday (I was at the Midwest Trade Meeting in Nashville, presenting my product quality paper, and wanted to send him some comments.) It’s a good idea: collect together photos of people in your field. Then, when someone goes to a conference in that field, he can look up the faces of people he is likely to see. As I get older, I have met an increasing fraction of the profession. Indeed, I may be at the maximum, since at some point deaths exceed new introductions (r.i.p. George Stigler, Sherwin Rosen, Fischer Black, William Vickrey, John Harsanyi, Franco Modigliani, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, Myres McDougal …). It is hard to remember who I’ve met, and who I’ve merely heard of. Pictures are helpful. The day will come when every conference has not only the attendance list, but the attendance list with photos.

The Value of Human Life; Cardinal Cooke

Sunday, April 24th, 2005

Is it possible that a person’s life becomes more valuable, not less, when he is feeble, sick, and useless, as Terri Schiavo was? On page 25 of his excellent 1991 book, Making Saints, Kenneth Woodward writes about the death of Cardinal Cooke of New York. Cooke was not all that great a cardinal—


But Cooke did one thing well: he died with considerable courage and grace. Three months before his death, the cardinal’s office revealed that for the previous ten years he had been secretly receiving blood transfusions and chemotherapy for leukemia…. In a moving final letter, read on Sunday, October 9, three days after his death, Cooke reminded the Catholics of New York that “the ‘gift of life,’ God’s special gift, is no less beautiful when it is accompanied by illness or weakness, hunger or poverty, mental or physical handicaps, loneliness or old age. Indeed, at these times, human life gains extra splendor as it requires special care, concern, and reverence. It is in and through the weakness of human vessels that the Lord continues to reveal the power of His love.”


I find the idea intriguing that human life per se is valuable. If it is, then a feeble life indeed shows that value more clearly.

Reducing Air Pollution by 80%

Friday, April 22nd, 2005

Should we reduce air pollution by 80%? It seems radical, but we can do it at zero cost. From National Review:

The EPA’s own models predict a further 80-percent reduction in emissions from cars over the next 20 years simply from fleet turnover, never mind whether we move to hybrids or other technologies.


Newer cars emit less pollution, so replacing the old ones automatically cuts pollution. Recall that it has long been known that the best way of reducing air pollution would be to buy and junk old cars.

Judge Greer, Terri Schiavo, and Church Discipline

Friday, April 22nd, 2005

World Magazine, as usual, looks for the unusual take on a news story. What do you suppose has happened to the church membership of Judge Greer, the judge who ordered Terri Schiavo to be killed?



The court decision in the long Terri Schiavo feeding-tube case divided many Christians–including Florida county judge George Greer and his pastor and fellow members at 2,000-member Calvary Baptist Church in St. Petersburg. Judge Greer ruled that by law Michael Schiavo as Terri’s husband had the right to make decisions on her behalf. Opponents had wanted him to cede custody to Mrs. Schiavo’s parents, who wanted to keep her feeding tube in place. The judge, a former Republican county commissioner described by fellow church members as pro- life, said he was nevertheless sworn to uphold the law.

Tensions between the judge and his church arose in 2003 after the Florida Baptist Witness published editorials critical of him. Calvary wraps its own newspaper inside the Witness, the Southern Baptist state newspaper, so it is circulated widely among Calvary’s members. By all accounts, Judge Greer stopped attending services as a result and halted his contributions. He expressed displeasure with how the church publication treated him, but he has declined all requests for news interviews.

New pastor William Rice arrived on the job last fall. He said he offered to meet with the judge to discuss their differences, but no meeting took place. The Witness meanwhile continued its criticism, and Rev. Rice publicly commended the editors for doing so. Finally, on March 10, he wrote a letter to Judge Greer that became public when he sent a copy to the courthouse.

The letter said: “If you have chosen to leave Calvary, distance yourself from her, and criticize her publicly, then why have you not formally transferred your membership elsewhere? I am not asking you to do this, but since your connection with Calvary continues to be a point of concern, it would seem the logical and, I would say, biblical course.”

The judge’s reply came in the form of a letter announcing his resignation from the church.

Rev. Rice told reporters he regretted the letter was made public, but he insisted Judge Greer’s withdrawal from Calvary was “completely voluntary.” He said the judge would always be welcome at the church, adding: “We will continue to pray for [him].” He also emphasized that Calvary “has long been committed to the sanctity of life.”

We have to give credit to the new pastor for doing *something* about the open sin of a member of his church. I hope that he addressd the issue from the pulpit. This behavior by a church member was public in the broadest sense. Everybody in the congregation knew about it, and would have looked to the pastor for leadership. Thus, to preach on it would not have been gossip in any way.

It’s curious that the pastor was afraid to criticize Judge Greer in his letter, or, mildly, to criticize him for behavior unrelated to the Schiavo case. The biblical course is emphatically *not* to tell a church member to resign because he has criticized the church leadership. It is perhaps biblical to tell someone to resign because they never attend church, but I bet the pastor hasn’t sent letters to other non-attenders– and I have to include the “perhaps”, because it isn’t clear that a person’s poor attendance is enough reason to ask them to leave the Church. Rather, it should be an occasion to ask them to *come* to church.

Nor is the connection to Calvary just a “point of concern”. On Judge Greer’s side, it might be his only chance of salvation. On the church’s side, it is a declaration that the church does not consider Judge Greer’s behavior to be bad enough to warrant expelling him.

I don’t know the full situation, which includes Baptist rules and the internal politics of that particular congregation. Pastors should not engage in church discipline apologetically, however, or talk as if it is a matter of indifference whether an erring member resigns or stays.

Sentiment against Science on Left and Right

Thursday, April 21st, 2005

An interesting topic came up at the law-and-econ lunch today: who are more anti-science, conservatives or liberals?

We didn’t explore it (it was a tangent on the issue of bias in academia), and I don’t have time to think it out now, but I do like the question. Conservatives include anti-evolution Fundamentalists, all of whom oppose a standard scientific conclusion, and many of whom oppose the scientific method too. These are separate questions, however. Many Creationists are “doing science”: they are applying the standard scientific methods of logic, testing, sifting of evidence, and so forth. They are just doing it wrong. As for “Intelligent Design”– that is clearly Science. It uses the same method as the rest of science, and does not dispute the solidly grounded conclusions of science (it gets controversial, of course, but only over the places where mainstream scientists is stuck– the ultimate origins of life, the immediate ancestors of homo sapiens, etc.).

On the other hand, most of the opposite to research on evolution and to its applications to daily life come from the Left. Sociobiology has turned out to be more popular with conservatives than with liberals, as have genetic theories of behavior and intelligence. Liberals are hostile to the very idea of applying science to differences between races and sciences, or to such things as curing homosexuality. In practice, it is from the Left that a scholar will get into academic trouble, not from the Right. You can do all the studies on evolution that you like, and conservatives won’t object in the slightest– not even Fundamentalists are calling for a purge of biology departments. But as we can tell from the Larry Summers affair at Harvard, a young scholar who does research on differences in ability between males and females is going to about as employable as a card-carrying Communist in 1955, and a lot *less* likely to get tenure in his current institution.

So I don’t know the answer.

Heretical Avodat Yisrael Loses PC-USA Funding

Thursday, April 21st, 2005

World magazine reports briefly on a PC-USA cutting off money to a Messianic Jewish congreation because of criticism from Jewish groups. The PC-USA is the big, liberal presbyterian denomination (the PCA is the smaller, conservative one), and Messianic Jews are people who combine Jewish practices with Christianity.



Under fire from Jewish groups opposed to the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.)’s support of a Messianic Jewish congregation in Philadelphia, Avodat Yisrael, the denomination’s local regional unit severed financial ties to it. Officials said the congregation had failed to meet membership and attendance goals, an explanation its leaders rejected.

Here’s a Philadelphia Inquirer article on the congregation, Avodat Yisrael.

Geoff Robinson looked into this, and found that the Avodat Yisrael congregation seems to be heretically synergistic. The PCUSA denomination does not mind heresy, and this particular heresy blends well with the liberalism of the denomination, so it seems the congregation is not engaged in evangelism, the PC-USA’s big worry. He writes well. Here’s an excerpt:



While the apparent lack of evangelism at Avodat Yisrael is disheartening, it stems from bad underlying soteriology (beliefs about salvation). In other words, the people around Avodat Yisrael deny the necessity of belief in Jesus. If you aren’t sure whether people need to believe in Jesus, is your call to repentance and to faith in Jesus going to be there? Will it be modeled after Paul or Peter who declared “repent and believe”? What is the underlying reason for this deficiency? The doctrine of Total Depravity is also denied.

Calvin so wisely noted that we cannot understand God fully unless we understand ourselves. And we can’t understand ourselves unless we understand God. What do we need to understand? God hates sin and will judge it. He is a burning fire. We are very sinful.

Simple Biblical truth? Yes. But it oh so hard to get our minds around these truths. We look at ourselves. We are ugly but we look around at all the other ugly people and think ourselves as beauty queens or plain Janes at best. So we find it hard to actually believe that God judges sinners.

But if there is a consistent message in Scripture it is that. Sinners will be judged. You better have a substitute.

God provided a substitute in Jesus, but some people don’t want that substitute. Unfortunately, God’s gameplan doesn’t have a plan B.

Justice Blackmun as Cite Checker

Thursday, April 21st, 2005

Professor Lindgren at VC points us to this David Garrow article on Justice Blackmun, who apparently let his clerks write the opinions and then checked the cites himself, the opposite of what is supposed to happen. That is different from the story one commonly hears, which is that the less intelligent liberal judges don’t even check the cites. Blackmun seems to have been following the old adage, “Never write anything you sign, and never sign anything you write.”

We must remember this when anybody says that judges, unlike other people in government, do their own work. Rather, judges just use fewer, younger, and less experienced staffers.

Here is an excerpt from the Lindgren post:


Before I had read Garrow’s account, I had long heard stories from clerks on the Supreme Court in the late 1980s that by then, Blackmun was not writing his opinions, that he was diligently doing substantive cite-checking on his clerks’ opinions.

A couple of weeks ago, again before reading Garrow’s account, I asked a late 1970s clerk if these stories were true. The clerk first said that Blackmun never changed a single word in the opinions that this clerk wrote for him, that Blackmun just checked the cites and published the opinions unchanged. Then the clerk qualified his statement slightly to say that maybe Blackmun occasionally changed a word here or there in the recitation of facts, but never in the legal argument. I find this appalling.

For what it’s worth, I just called another late 1970s Blackmun clerk, who said that Blackmun himself actually wrote the first draft of one majority opinion that this clerk worked on, but that on other cases the clerk had “pretty much a free hand.” The clerk also suggested that there were other justices semingly more troublesome in their involvement in opinion-writing than Blackmun.

I wonder if Blackmun did a good job of checking his cites? A careful look at the accuracy of the citations in his opinions might be fun, since it seems the clerks were trusting that an old man less intelligent than themselves , and perhaps less hardworking was doing that gruntwork.

Weblog Stuff: Fonts and Run-On Lists

Wednesday, April 20th, 2005

I found some new Wordpress stuff.

(1) To get rid of bullet points (on all lists, not just some) and to get rid of newlines put these two commands in the style.css file:

ul{list-style: none;}

li{display: inline;}

(2) Here is a font variant page that shows what different fonts look like.

(3) To make a blockquote small and in a different font (Times here) use this code

<small> <BLOCKQUOTE> <span STYLE=”font-family: Times”> Here is where the quote would go. </span></BLOCKQUOTE> </small>

to get this result


Here is where the quote would go.

Inflammation

Tuesday, April 19th, 2005

A law professor recently sent me a good typo. He had cited me correctly, but for some reason the law review editor changed it to this:

See Eric Rasmusen, Games and Inflammation 13 (3d ed. 2001).


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