Comments on: Illegal Immigrants Cause 21% of Crime http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/ Tue, 07 Oct 2008 08:59:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Gabe http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-229909 Gabe Thu, 22 May 2008 03:06:37 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-229909 Um, dude, criminal aliens are not all criminal ILLEGAL aliens. They estimate that 66% of the incarcerated criminal aliens are actually illegal immigrants. So your numbers are inflated by 33%. Um, dude, criminal aliens are not all criminal ILLEGAL aliens. They estimate that 66% of the incarcerated criminal aliens are actually illegal immigrants. So your numbers are inflated by 33%.

]]> By: alaina http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-227918 alaina Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:01:35 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-227918 i loved it it was freakin awesome! i loved it it was freakin awesome!

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-226033 Anonymous Fri, 02 Nov 2007 08:08:35 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-226033 I appreciate the comments that go into the numbers, but they should not so casually charge me with bad faith. Notice that I *do* cite my sources. I don't have time to check over everything, so I accept that maybe I have made mistakes, but they are not in bad faith. Please do go ahead and check everything, including the arithmetic. I did take a look and see that even in the post, without going to the original sources, Monica should have been able to see that the figure of 264,000 criminal aliens comes from the GAO report that I quote at length-- not from some estimate of the number of Hispanics in prison. Maybe the GAO report is wrong, maybe the Hispanics data is-- I don't know. I appreciate the comments that go into the numbers, but they should not so casually charge me with bad faith. Notice that I *do* cite my sources. I don’t have time to check over everything, so I accept that maybe I have made mistakes, but they are not in bad faith. Please do go ahead and check everything, including the arithmetic.

I did take a look and see that even in the post, without going to the original sources, Monica should have been able to see that the figure of 264,000 criminal aliens comes from the GAO report that I quote at length– not from some estimate of the number of Hispanics in prison. Maybe the GAO report is wrong, maybe the Hispanics data is– I don’t know.

]]> By: Monica http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-226032 Monica Fri, 02 Nov 2007 04:19:03 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-226032 I agree with Sam above that your calculations and assumptions are very biased and skewed. And where are you getting your numbers? Shere are you getting the number that 264,000 are incarcerated illegal immigrants? I traced your statistics to the US Census Bureau, and according to table 336, only 108,300 inmates were of Hispanic origin in 2004. Granted this is excluding some facilities, but the total number of inmates they include is 713,990. Thus it only accounts for half the number (1,496,000) you post. Assuming porportions of race are held constant, this would still only put total Hispanic incarcerations around 224,400. Since this is still an assumption, we could say that this number might plausibly be slightly higher (I couldn't find total numbers on the website you cite). However, your calculations mean that all if not the majority of Hispanics incarcerated would be illegal immigrants (this based on the fact that the majority of illegal immigrants are Hispanic). Dude, you need to cite your sources more clearly and recalculate your calculations...something is really off. I agree with Sam above that your calculations and assumptions are very biased and skewed. And where are you getting your numbers? Shere are you getting the number that 264,000 are incarcerated illegal immigrants? I traced your statistics to the US Census Bureau, and according to table 336, only 108,300 inmates were of Hispanic origin in 2004. Granted this is excluding some facilities, but the total number of inmates they include is 713,990. Thus it only accounts for half the number (1,496,000) you post. Assuming porportions of race are held constant, this would still only put total Hispanic incarcerations around 224,400. Since this is still an assumption, we could say that this number might plausibly be slightly higher (I couldn’t find total numbers on the website you cite). However, your calculations mean that all if not the majority of Hispanics incarcerated would be illegal immigrants (this based on the fact that the majority of illegal immigrants are Hispanic). Dude, you need to cite your sources more clearly and recalculate your calculations…something is really off.

]]> By: Andrew http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-222964 Andrew Fri, 17 Aug 2007 20:42:41 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-222964 Assuming that illegals consitute 20 million out of a total U.S. population of 300 million, they are less than 6.7% of the total population. If they constitute 17.6% of the prison population, that means that they are 2.6 times more likely (17.6 / 6.7) to be incarcerated than the average person. If there are actually only 12 million illegals (4% of U.S. population), then they are 4.4 times more likely to be in jail. In either case, that reflects a high crime rate, not a low one. There may be certain other demographic groups with even higher crime rates, but that hardly supports proponents of open borders. Note that working "off the books" is also a crime. The victims are those who work legally and must pay higher taxes, and also those who have to compete in the labor market against those who, off the books, cost much less to employ. Assuming that illegals consitute 20 million out of a total U.S. population of 300 million, they are less than 6.7% of the total population. If they constitute 17.6% of the prison population, that means that they are 2.6 times more likely (17.6 / 6.7) to be incarcerated than the average person. If there are actually only 12 million illegals (4% of U.S. population), then they are 4.4 times more likely to be in jail. In either case, that reflects a high crime rate, not a low one. There may be certain other demographic groups with even higher crime rates, but that hardly supports proponents of open borders. Note that working “off the books” is also a crime. The victims are those who work legally and must pay higher taxes, and also those who have to compete in the labor market against those who, off the books, cost much less to employ.

]]> By: Sam http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-222048 Sam Tue, 10 Jul 2007 03:08:58 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-222048 Soooo... You start out by saying that Total prison population: 1,496,000 Total illegal imigrants in prison: 264,000 Then you try an calculate the percentage of illegals in prison. How do we calculate the percentage of illegals in prison given the two numbers above? Hmmm... tough one. We could start doing "new" math and work out a whole bunch of percentages based on total number of imigrants and US population and hair color and relative hand-to-face ratios. Or.... we could ask a local fifth-grader: 264,000 out of 1,496,000 is 17.6%. ---- THEN, you say that if 21% of prisoners are illegal immigrants (actually 17%, and actully even less than that, if you read below), THEREFORE 21% of rapists and murderers are illegal immigrants. Great assumption! Let's just throw that in there and hope no one questions that assumption! If 10% of all criminal were juveniles, would it follow that 10% of all embezzelment was caused by juveniles? ---- Finlly, HOW again did you calculate the total number of illegals in prison in 2005? It seems to me that you took the total number of illegals in prison in 2002, then ADDED that to the total number of illegals in prison in 2004. Does that make any sense at all? To find the numbers for 2006, should we add the total number in prison in 2003 to the total number in prison in 2005??? Soooo…

You start out by saying that

Total prison population: 1,496,000
Total illegal imigrants in prison: 264,000

Then you try an calculate the percentage of illegals in prison. How do we calculate the percentage of illegals in prison given the two numbers above? Hmmm… tough one.

We could start doing “new” math and work out a whole bunch of percentages based on total number of imigrants and US population and hair color and relative hand-to-face ratios.

Or…. we could ask a local fifth-grader:

264,000 out of 1,496,000 is 17.6%.

—-

THEN, you say that if 21% of prisoners are illegal immigrants (actually 17%, and actully even less than that, if you read below), THEREFORE 21% of rapists and murderers are illegal immigrants. Great assumption! Let’s just throw that in there and hope no one questions that assumption!

If 10% of all criminal were juveniles, would it follow that 10% of all embezzelment was caused by juveniles?

—-

Finlly, HOW again did you calculate the total number of illegals in prison in 2005?

It seems to me that you took the total number of illegals in prison in 2002, then ADDED that to the total number of illegals in prison in 2004. Does that make any sense at all?

To find the numbers for 2006, should we add the total number in prison in 2003 to the total number in prison in 2005???

]]> By: Dave http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221935 Dave Fri, 06 Jul 2007 23:31:19 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221935 I guess hand holding is necessary. In calculating the percent of crime committed by illegal aliens, Rasmussen used the figure for “criminal aliens” which includes all aliens who are criminals including those that are in the country legally. His estimate therefore is overestimated I guess hand holding is necessary.

In calculating the percent of crime committed by illegal aliens, Rasmussen used the figure for “criminal aliens” which includes all aliens who are criminals including those that are in the country legally. His estimate therefore is overestimated

]]> By: Charles http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221930 Charles Fri, 06 Jul 2007 17:07:46 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221930 Dave, what an insightful and helpful observation. Boy that really helps to clarify the empirical facts about illegal aliens and their relative contribution to crime in the US! (not) Charles Dave, what an insightful and helpful observation. Boy that really helps to clarify the empirical facts about illegal aliens and their relative contribution to crime in the US! (not)

Charles

]]> By: Dave http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221901 Dave Thu, 05 Jul 2007 16:38:13 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221901 Criminal Alien and Illegal Alien are not the same. Criminal Alien and Illegal Alien are not the same.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221837 Anonymous Mon, 02 Jul 2007 13:45:47 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221837 Immigration offenses are federal, and most of the prisoners are state. Also, I believe even the figure for federal prisons excludes immigration offenses-- the GAO report was on general criminality of illegal immigrants. I'm not even sure anyone goes to prison for immigration violations--- they can be deported, and the Administration is not eager to punish immigration offenses. Immigration offenses are federal, and most of the prisoners are state. Also, I believe even the figure for federal prisons excludes immigration offenses– the GAO report was on general criminality of illegal immigrants. I’m not even sure anyone goes to prison for immigration violations— they can be deported, and the Administration is not eager to punish immigration offenses.

]]> By: Robert http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221834 Robert Mon, 02 Jul 2007 13:17:12 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221834 Wouldn't this statistic be an overestimate if the illegal immigrants are in jail for being what they are, illegal immigrants? Also, if they want to keep a low profile, commiting crimes isn't a good way to do it. Wouldn’t this statistic be an overestimate if the illegal immigrants are in jail for being what they are, illegal immigrants? Also, if they want to keep a low profile, commiting crimes isn’t a good way to do it.

]]> By: JAMES DRISCOLL http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221737 JAMES DRISCOLL Sat, 30 Jun 2007 16:27:54 +0000 http://www.rasmusen.org/x/2007/06/29/illegal-immigrants-cause-21-of-crime/#comment-221737 The big challenge is to get information like this on the public radar screen. Feinstein and Kerry want to censor talk radio because it is one sided, they say. No one mentions the one-sidedness of our leading papers, NYT, WSJ, Washpost, LATimes etc, who are monolithic in support or illegal immigrants and never publish the other side. You might want to check my op ed in the SF Chronicle: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2007/06/28/EDG6QQ4T6P1.DTL The big challenge is to get information like this on the public radar screen. Feinstein and Kerry want to censor talk radio because it is one sided, they say. No one mentions the one-sidedness of our leading papers, NYT, WSJ, Washpost, LATimes etc, who are monolithic in support or illegal immigrants and never publish the other side. You might want to check my op ed in the SF Chronicle:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2007/06/28/EDG6QQ4T6P1.DTL

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