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{\bf  Global Warming}

July 26, 2010 

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\noindent
Eric Rasmusen, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. BU 438, 1309 E. 10th Street, Bloomington, Indiana,
47405-1701. (812) 855-9219. Fax: 812-855-3354. \href{mailto:erasmuse@indiana.edu}{erasmuse@indiana.edu}, \url{http://rasmusen.org}.

 
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 \begin{figure}
 \includegraphics[width=6in]{temp.pdf}
\caption{\bf Temp diagram holder }\label{davies77.jpg}
\end{figure}
 

 
1. Is the world getting warmer?

2. If so, do human carbon dioxide emissions make
much difference to the temperature?
 
3. If temperatures do rise, is that bad, good, or
neutral?

4. If it is bad, what should be done?

5. If something should be done, how can we
overcome the free rider problem?

The Science

• We do not really know what causes Ice Ages or climate
change, but we know it does happen, with big effects.

• If the earth has high carbon dioxide levels, that keeps heat
from leaving– a “greenhouse” effect. (Greenhouses keep
heat from leaving the enclosed space.)

 
• Carbon dioxide is generated when people burn coal, oil, or
wood, or make cement from calcium carbonate.

• Carbon dioxide is absorbed when plants grow.

• Warming would help the U.S, Canada, and Russia, but hurt
most Third World countries.

What Has Happened to Temperature?

World weather station data, picking points on a map
(unadjusted for urbanization, etc.).
 
NASA data on global temperatures monthly 1880-
present,

Annual temperatures, total and by hemisphere,
\url{http://www.surfacestations.org/} and by state at
\url{http://gallery.surfacestations.org/main.php?g2_itemId=
20}

Year Glob NHem SHem
1921 -13 -6 -21
1922 -24 -22 -27
1923 -21 -16 -26
1924 -22 -13 -30
1925 -16 -9 -24
1926 -2 8 -11
1927 -14 -6 -22
1928 -12 -1 -23
1929 -25 -23 -27
1930 -7 7 -21
1931 -1 11 -14
1932 -6 5 -17
1933 -18 -18 -17
 
Year Glob NHem
SHem
1941 10 15 6
1942 3 12 -6
1943 10 19 1
1944 20 30 10
1945 7 9 4
1946 -4 7 -15
1947 1 13 -12
1948 -4 8 -15
1949 -7 4 -17
1950 -15 -13 -18
1951 -4 7 -15
1952 3 10 -4

Year Glob NHem SHem
1981 26 34 19
1982 5 1 8
1983 26 21 31
1984 8 -1 17
1985 5 -4 14
1986 12 9 15
1987 26 21 31
1988 30 31 30
1989 18 23 14
1990 37 49 25
1991 35 39 31

Year Glob NHem SHem
1961 7 7 8
1962 4 14 -6
1963 8 15 2
1964 -20 -20 -20
1965 -11 -14 -7
1966 -3 -1 -5
1967 0 4 -4
1968 -4 -4 -4
1969 8 0 15
1970 3 -3 10
1971 -10 -16 -4
1972 1 -20 21
1973 14 8 20
1992 12 8 17
1993 13 16 11

Year Glob NHem
SHem
2001 47 60 35
2002 56 67 45
2003 54 69 40
2004 48 64 33
2005 62 82 42

Global Temperature Data from the NASA Site


1934 -6 6 -17
1935 -11 -3 -19
1936 -4 3 -11
1937 8 20 -5
1938 11 25 -3
1939 2 14 -9
1940 5 11 -2
1953 10 27 -6
1954 -10 0 -21
1955 -10 -5 -15
1956 -17 -23 -12
1957 7 6 9
1958 8 16 -1
1959 6 12 -1
1960 -1 10 -12
1974 -7 -20 5
1975 -5 -7 -3
1976 -16 -24 -8
1977 12 8 16
1978 1 -3 5
1979 8 4 12
1980 18 11 24
1994 23 34 13
1995 38 54 21
1996 29 25 33
1997 39 49 29
1998 56 69 42
1999 32 47 16
2000 33 49 17
2006 54 75 33
2007 56 77 35
2008 44 60 28

Annual mean Land-Ocean
Temperature Index in .01 C
selected zonal means sources:
GHCN 1880-12/2006 + SST: 1880-
11/1981 HadISST1 12/1981-
12/2006 Reynolds v2 using
elimination of outliers and
homogeneity adjustment Note: -
base period: 1951-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt


Year Glob NHem SHem
1921 -13 -6 -21
1922 -24 -22 -27
1923 -21 -16 -26
1924 -22 -13 -30
1925 -16 -9 -24
1926 -2 8 -11
1927 -14 -6 -22
1928 -12 -1 -23
1929 -25 -23 -27
1930 -7 7 -21
1931 -1 11 -14
1932 -6 5 -17
1933 -18 -18 -17


Year Glob NHem

SHem
1941 10 15 6
1942 3 12 -6
1943 10 19 1
1944 20 30 10
1945 7 9 4
1946 -4 7 -15
1947 1 13 -12
1948 -4 8 -15
1949 -7 4 -17
1950 -15 -13 -18
1951 -4 7 -15
1952 3 10 -4

Year Glob NHem SHem
1981 26 34 19
1982 5 1 8
1983 26 21 31
1984 8 -1 17
1985 5 -4 14
1986 12 9 15
1987 26 21 31
1988 30 31 30
1989 18 23 14
1990 37 49 25
1991 35 39 31

Year Glob NHem SHem
1961 7 7 8
1962 4 14 -6
1963 8 15 2
1964 -20 -20 -20
1965 -11 -14 -7
1966 -3 -1 -5
1967 0 4 -4
1968 -4 -4 -4
1969 8 0 15
1970 3 -3 10
1971 -10 -16 -4
1972 1 -20 21
1973 14 8 20
1992 12 8 17
1993 13 16 11

Year Glob NHem
SHem
2001 47 60 35
2002 56 67 45
2003 54 69 40
2004 48 64 33
2005 62 82 42

Global Temperature Data from the NASA Site

1934 -6 6 -17
1935 -11 -3 -19
1936 -4 3 -11
1937 8 20 -5
1938 11 25 -3
1939 2 14 -9
1940 5 11 -2
1953 10 27 -6
1954 -10 0 -21
1955 -10 -5 -15
1956 -17 -23 -12
1957 7 6 9
1958 8 16 -1
1959 6 12 -1
1960 -1 10 -12
1974 -7 -20 5
1975 -5 -7 -3
1976 -16 -24 -8
1977 12 8 16
1978 1 -3 5
1979 8 4 12
1980 18 11 24
1994 23 34 13
1995 38 54 21
1996 29 25 33
1997 39 49 29
1998 56 69 42
1999 32 47 16
2000 33 49 17
2006 54 75 33
2007 56 77 35
2008 44 60 28

Annual mean Land-Ocean
Temperature Index in .01 C
selected zonal means sources:
GHCN 1880-12/2006 + SST: 1880-
11/1981 HadISST1 12/1981-
12/2006 Reynolds v2 using
elimination of outliers and
homogeneity adjustment Note: -
base period: 1951-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt
 


Artful Scientific Writing
7
To note: 1. The blue heading says “are consistent with”, not “show that”. It could have
said, “Changes are consistent with an unchanged climate” too.
2. The circled black writing undermines the blue heading’s conclusions.
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf IPCC, p. 6)


ClimateGate

The Climate Research Unit at the U. of East Anglia
in England is the most complete source for world
temperature data. Someone just leaked a large
amount of emails and computer code they’d been
keeping secret. They are shown to have tried to
suppress other scientist’s research, illegally kept info
secret, done incompetent programming, deliberately
misled people about their results, and had as secret
allies supposedly objective websites and newspapers.


New Zealand Fakery Watts Up with That

The caption to the photo on the NiWA site
reads:

From NIWA’s web site — Figure 7: Mean
annual temperature over New Zealand,
from 1853 to 2008 inclusive, based on
between 2 (from 1853) and 7
(from 1908) long-term station records.
The blue and red bars show annual
differences from the 1971 – 2000
average, the solid black line is a
smoothed
time series, and the dotted [straight] line is
the linear trend over 1909 to 2008
(.92°C/100 years).

The trend is statistically
insignificant at .06°C per century
since 185.


The Government Response: Combining Temperature Data from
Multiple Sites in Wellington

 
Satellite Data– Much Better
 
THE WORLD IS WARMING UNEVENLY

Cato study, \url{http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb109/hb_109-48.pdf} from
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Tinker, 1999),
 
US Code 42. \section
 7521. Emission standards for new motor
vehicles or new motor vehicle engines

(a) Authority of Administrator to prescribe by
regulation
Except as otherwise provided in subsection (b) of this
section—

(1) The Administrator shall by regulation prescribe (and
from time to time revise) in accordance with the
provisions of this section,
standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant
from any class or classes of new motor vehicles or new
motor vehicle engines,
which in his judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution
which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public
health or welfare….


TITLE 42 > CHAPTER 85 > SUBCHAPTER III > \section 7602
Definitions

When used in this chapter— …

(g) The term “air pollutant” means
any air pollution agent or combination of such agents,
including any physical chemical biological radioactive
physical, chemical, biological, (including source material, special nuclear material,
and byproduct material) substance or matter
which is emitted into or otherwise enters the ambient air.
 
In 1999, 19 private organizations filed a rulemaking
petition asking EPA to regulate greenhouse gas
emissions from new motor vehicles under section 202 of
the Clean Air Act.
Fifteen months later, EPA requested public comment.


EPA received more than 50,000 comments over the next
five months.

September 8, 2003, EPA entered an order denying the
rulemaking petition, saying:

 (1) that contrary to the opinions of its former general
counsels, the Clean Air Act does not authorize EPA to issue
mandatory regulations to address global climate change;
and
16
(2) that even if the agency had the authority to set
greenhouse gas emission standards, it would be unwise to
do so at this time. 

The EPA’s denial was challenged in court. The
Supreme Court said the EPA had to issue a rule.
2009: Commenting begins on the remanded
EPA determination.

EPA, "Proposed Endangerment and Cause or
Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases
under the Clean Air Act ,"
http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment.ht
ml (April 22, 2009).
Dec. 7, 2009: New endangerment finding.
Regulations are coming in April 2010.
Schelling (1992)
Schelling won the Nobel Prize in economics for his work
on game theory in the 1960’s.
Read: The Strategy of Conflict. Credible threats is the main
 
idea. Focal points too.
 
1. Agriculture is a small part of any advanced economy.
Why does climate matter?
 
How Should Money Be Spent to
Help the Third World?
 
What Are the
Goals of
Preventing
Warming?
 
Solutions

1. Reduce carbon emissions (but how?—taxes or tradable
permits are impractical)

2. Plant trees

3. Fertilize the ocean with phosphate
 
4. Put light-blocking substances into the atmosphere
(“nuclear winter”)

5. Lock carbon up under the ground somehow

6. Ameliorate effects by air conditioning, shifting to mildwinter
crops, higher sea walls, etc.


Rent-Seeking

• The big electric utilities used to oppose any action. Now they are more
supportive.

• Utilities with nuclear plants will benefit.
 
• Utilities that will reduce emissions anyway to comply with new sulfur dioxide
rules wil benefit from tradable carbon dioxide permits.

• “Cinergy and AEP rely heavily on old coal plants that are big polluters and
CO2 emitters. But many of those plants are nearing the end of their shelf
lives, and will soon need replacing with cleaner alternatives. Since a climate
program rewards companies that make the biggest CO2 reductions, Cinergy
and AEP would stand to rake in cash from a cap-and-trade regime simply by
enacting their business plans.”


"Kyoto's 'Capitalists'," The Wall Street Journal, 13 December 2004, p. A16.
7/26/2010
 
The Precautionary Principle

Suppose we are limited to spending at most one trillion dollars dealing with
climate change. Suppose, too, we think that

(a) there is a 99% chance that if we do nothing, the temperature will rise and
cause 3 trillion dollars in harm to the global economy ,

(b) there is a 0% chance that the temperature won't rise, and

(c) there is a 1% chance that the temperature will rise dramatically, killing off
90% of the world's population.

The standard global warming line is that we should spend the trillion dollars
on substituting other inputs for energy, to reduce CO2 output and prevent the
loss of the 3 trillion dollars.

The precautionary principle says that we shouldn't waste the trillion dollars
on that--- we should spend it on geoengineering research and technology to
deal with the 1% probability of disaster, instead.
 

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\noindent
{\bf  Questions You Should Be Able to Answer}

    

 


\bigskip

\noindent
{\bf  Terms to Know}

 
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\noindent
{\bf  Homework Questions}

 HERE PUT EXAMPLES WITH DIFFERENT NUMBERS THAN IN THE TEXT
 

 
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